MRE firm energy and the seasonal allocation proposed by ANEEL

Until now, hydroelectric generators in the Energy Reallocation Mechanism have distributed their physical guarantee month by month over the year, respecting the annual amount. Under the proposal that ANEEL will put to public consultation, with contributions from 3 September to 2 October 2026, seasonalisation will follow the mechanism's average generation profile over the last five years, applying from January 2027 and partly already in December 2026.

The post does not say for how long the current rule remains valid for contracts already signed. In the March 2026 accounting, in CCEE's InfoMercado No. 225, the mechanism's adjustment factor stood at 94.63%, with an average of 79.02% over the previous twelve months.

With the pool delivering below physical guarantee on average, the month in which that guarantee is allocated determines exposure to the settlement price. A contract signed under the old rule and settled under the new one changes result without any change in the annual volume sold.

Hydroelectric cash flow in 2027 is decided by the date on which the new seasonalisation starts to apply to each contract.