Inflows in the 22 to 28 August PMO and the yellow tariff flag

The ONS Monthly Operation Programme bulletin for 22 to 28 August 2026 projects Natural Inflow Energy of 118% of the Long-Term Average in the South subsystem, 82% in the Southeast and Centre-West, 59% in the Northeast and 51% in the North.

The bulletin does not state who absorbs the cost when the forecast inflow is not confirmed. ANEEL kept the yellow tariff flag in August 2026, with a surcharge of BRL 1.88 per 100 kWh for all consumers of the National Interconnected System, for the fourth month in a row, according to Agência Brasil of 31 July 2026, which attributes the decision to the dry season and to the dispatch of thermal plants.

An inflow projection is a dispatch assumption, and thermal dispatch enters the electricity bill as a variable cost. For the captive consumer, the exposure arrives through the tariff flag. For those who contract energy, it arrives through the short-term price. The bulletin describes the scenario and does not allocate the bill.

The split of this cost between the tariff and the short-term market is the variable that defines the bulletin's effect on the budget of those who consume energy.