ONS in the Super El Niño and power sector resilience debate

The ONS reports that Marcio Rea, the body's director-general, took part on 20 August 2026, in Brasília, in the opening panel of the event Super El Niño e a Resiliência do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro, promoted by ANEEL, and stressed that the El Niño forecast for 2026/2027 requires expanding the sector's capacity for anticipation, planning and adaptation.

The variable left out is what revenue is contracted and for how long when hydrology frustrates generation. On 30 April 2026, the CCEE announced the publication of the Trading Rules approved by ANEEL Normative Resolution 1,154/2026, among them Module 24, ACR Hydrological Risk Pass-Through, version 2026.5.2.

Operational resilience and revenue resilience are not the same calculation. The generator sells physical guarantee under long-term contracts and, when generation by the MRE pool falls below it, the difference becomes a purchase in the short-term market or a regulated pass-through.

The generator's exposure to El Niño is measured by contracted volume and contract terms, read against the hydrological risk pass-through rule.