Energy autophagy: solar at noon, scarcity in the late afternoon

Markets with a lot of solar swing between a midday surplus and late-afternoon scarcity. In an article this Thursday, economist Daniel Lima starts from the Danish case to describe what he calls energy autophagy: by buying in the trough and selling at the peak, batteries flatten the curve and compress the four-hour spread that remunerates arbitrage.

In the Brazilian design, the question was settled before the first battery operates. MME Normative Ordinance 136, of 1 June 2026, provides for 15-year contracts and a fixed annual revenue adjusted by the IPCA. Article 9, paragraph 5, item IV requires that this revenue cover all use of the plants by the ONS, with no additional revenues outside the CRCAP.

The battery contracted at auction lives on availability: four hours per cycle, up to two cycles per day, with a monthly performance deduction. The spread compression described in the article hits the merchant project.

The same equipment supports two businesses, and the choice comes before the purchase: fixed revenue for 15 years, or exposure to an hourly price that storage itself tends to flatten.