The 18 September Focus survey and the regulatory WACC

The Central Bank released the highlights of the Focus Report of 18 September 2026. Market medians point to IPCA of 4.92% in 2026 and 4.30% in 2027, Selic at 13.50% per year at the end of 2026 and 12.00% at the end of 2027, GDP of 1.88% in 2026 and an exchange rate of BRL 5.20 per dollar at year-end.

These figures translate directly into the power sector. According to Canal Energia, on 5 March 2026, ANEEL set the 2026 regulatory WACC at 8% after tax for generation and transmission and at 8.1% for distribution, the rate that remunerates prudent investment recognised in the tariff.

For those putting together a project, the practical reading lies in the combination. High interest rates for longer make debt more expensive and lengthen the payback period; inflation projected near 5% in 2026 keeps pressure on indexed contracts; the exchange rate at BRL 5.20 sets the cost of imported equipment, which weighs on solar and storage capex.

The premium goes to those who reduce exposure: debt indexation matched to revenue indexation, equipment purchases locked in currency and a schedule that does not depend on falling interest rates to close. The variable under the developer's control is the capital structure, and it is decided now.