Green hydrogen at USD 168 billion in 2035: a consultancy projection

Hemanth Chintala is circulating a sample market report projecting US$168.37 billion for green hydrogen by 2035, citing global demand above 100 Mt in 2025 and installed electrolysis capacity above 4 GW. The post is a commercial call for the full study.

Demand in that market is created by rule. Directive (EU) 2023/2413, as described by the European Clean Hydrogen Observatory, requires 42% of the hydrogen used in industry to be renewable and of non-biological origin by 2030 and 60% by 2035, with the transposition deadline passed in May 2025 and infringement procedures open.

A market-size projection is not contracted revenue. What supports an investment decision is the quota written into national law, with a deadline and a penalty, because that is what gives the producer a selling horizon.

Before comparing market figures, it is worth checking in which countries the quota is already law and from when it applies. That calendar defines when renewable hydrogen has an obliged buyer.