Load forecast of 85 average GW for September

At the monthly meeting of the Monthly Operation Programme, on 27 August 2026, ONS presented an initial load projection of 85,118 average MW for September in the National Interconnected System, a change of 5.93%. For October the indication is 6.65%, and the expectation for the year is growth of 4.37%.

The post does not say who absorbs the difference when realised load departs from the projection. In the March 2026 accounting, released by CCEE in InfoMercado No. 225, the Short-Term Market traded BRL 4.491 billion, equivalent to 19,249 average MW, or 25.2% of SIN consumption that month. It is in this market that the deviation between contracting and consumption is settled.

A distribution company that contracts above realised load is left with a surplus to settle. A generator that sold against a higher consumption curve buys the difference at the settlement price. In both cases the effect does not appear in the annual contracted volume, but in monthly cash.

The variable that decides the outcome is the gap between projected load and settled load, month by month.