Solar overtakes coal in China and the supply chain behind it

An installed capacity milestone is often read as a transition already settled. In China, by the end of July 2026, installed solar photovoltaic capacity reached about 1.286 TW, above coal at 1.285 TW, and solar generation between January and July totalled around 802.4 billion kWh.

Installed capacity in China is not the same as capacity to supply the rest of the world. The International Energy Agency, in the report Solar PV Global Supply Chains, from 2022, records a Chinese share above 80% in every manufacturing stage of the panel, with Xinjiang province concentrating 40% of global polysilicon and one in every seven panels made worldwide coming out of a single plant.

There are two sides. That concentration is what drove module costs down and made unsubsidised solar projects viable, Brazil included. It is also what turns a localised disruption, whether trade policy, weather or an industrial accident, into a schedule delay on the other side of the world.

What decides supply risk in a solar project is where the polysilicon comes from, not where the module was assembled.