Distributed generation at 24.8% of the grid in 2030 according to ONS

The ONS published its snapshot of installed and planned capacity in the SIN, based on the August 2026 PMO. Micro and mini distributed generation rises from 20.6% of capacity in August 2026 to 24.8% in December 2030, the second largest share in the system, while wind falls from 13.5% to 12.5% and utility-scale photovoltaics remain at 8%.

The MMGD and Behind-the-Meter Batteries volume of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2035, by EPE and MME, from 2025, projects MMGD at 78.1 GW in 2035 in the reference scenario and records an increase in cases of active power flow reversal in the networks, with a greater need for generation restriction.

For the centralised generator, the difference shows up in fixed cost. A curtailed plant continues to pay operation and maintenance, insurance, land lease and debt on installed capacity, not on the energy accepted by dispatch.

This brings storage into the calculation as a grid asset. The PDE 2035 volume points to behind-the-meter batteries to keep energy within the distribution network and avoid reverse flow, which preserves accepted generation and the revenue that pays the fixed cost.