Natural hydrogen in Sichuan moves from model to measurement

Natural hydrogen has moved from modelled estimate to field measurement. On 21 August 2026 OilPrice.com reported samples in China's Sichuan Basin with purity between 97.33% and 98.24% and a projected cost below USD 1 per kilogram, against USD 3.50 to 6.00 for green hydrogen, with the Chinese and Philippine projects still at the exploration stage.

The missing variable is the interval between exploration spending and first revenue. The Global Hydrogen Review 2026, from the International Energy Agency, records that projects remain in early surface and subsurface exploration across almost 30 countries, with only one operating well, in Mali, and that initial production could emerge in the 2030s, with large-scale deployment unlikely before the 2040s.

A projected cost per kilogram does not pay for a rig or a licence. Between first drilling and first invoice there is a decade without revenue. The IEA itself records that geological hydrogen already accounts for around 15% of venture capital directed at hydrogen production technologies, and whoever enters now carries that interval.

What decides a natural hydrogen project is the cash available until first revenue.